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Wednesday, April 22, 2009

Best Musical Nominee [title of show]?!! And Other Predictions

ModFab beat me to it but new the [title of show] show! This time it's Official Tony Season Launch Show Campaign Special! Cause don't forget Tony selection committee! [title of show] is in fact eligible for Best Musical this year at the Tony's and I hope it gets a nomination!



And Jeff has made his AMAZING Jeffigibility Chart of ALL the possible nominees. I'm seriously going to have to come back to this and analyze it some more.

Now I still haven't seen all the possible musicals (and there are far too many new plays and play revivals that I haven't seen so I'm not even going to bother guessing), but I could probably make some guesses as to who will get nominated and who I would WANT to be nominated. Of the 13 musicals (9 new musicals, 4 revivals), I've seen 6 on Broadway, 5 in the pre-Broadway run (White Christmas, Hair with different main casts), and I only haven't seen Rock of Ages and Tale of Two Cities in any incarnation so far.

Now, the Outer Critics Award nominations came out but they were sort of a joke. And the Drama League Award nominations were announced (yay for Black Watch!) yesterday but between the Off-Broadway and Broadway combinations and a general list of actors nominated, it doesn't really help with the Tony's (plus some shows that transferred from Off-Broadway weren't eligible since they were already considered in previous years).

Here are my random totally uneducated predictions and preferences for the Tony Awards:
(I'm totally going out on a limb with my picks. Especially the Will Win/Should Win!)

Best Musical:
Should Be Nominated:
Billy Elliot
9 to 5
[title of show]
13
My Dark Horse: Next to Normal

Will Be Nominated:
Billy Elliot
9 to 5
Next to Normal
Rock of Ages

Dark Horse: [title of show], Shrek
Will Win/Should Win: Billy Elliot


Best Revival of a Musical:
There are only 4 choices so they will all get nominated.
Hair
Pal Joey
Guys and Dolls
West Side Story

Will Win/Should Win: Hair


Best Actor in a Musical:
Should Be Nominated:
Gavin Creel for Hair
Hunter Bell for [title of show]
Jeff Bowen for [title of show]
Matt Cavanaugh for West Side Story
David Alvarez, Trent Kowalik, Kiril Kulish for Billy Elliot
My Dark Horse: J. Robert Spencer for Next to Normal

Will Get Nominated:
Matt Cavanaugh for West Side Story
David Alvarez, Trent Kowalik, Kiril Kulish for Billy Elliot
Gavin Creel for Hair
Brian d'Arcy James for Shrek
J. Robert Spencer for Next to Normal

Dark Horse: Hunter Bell for [title of show], James Barbour for Tale of Two Cities
Will Win: David Alvarez, Trent Kowalik, Kiril Kulish for Billy Elliot
Should Win: Gavin Creel for Hair


Best Actress in a Musical:
Should Be Nominated:
Alice Ripley for Next to Normal
Josefina Scaglione for West Side Story
Allison Janney for 9 to 5
Stephanie J. Block for 9 to 5
Stockard Channing for Pal Joey
My Dark Horse: Kate Jennings Grant for Guys and Dolls

Will Be Nominated:
Alice Ripley for Next to Normal
Josefina Scaglione for West Side Story
Allison Janney for 9 to 5
Sutton Foster for Shrek
Lauren Graham for Guys and Dolls

Dark Horse: Kate Jennings Grant for Guys and Dolls, Amy Spanger for Rock of Ages
Will Win: Alice Ripley for Next to Normal
Should Win: Allison Janney for 9 to 5

The two Featured Actor and Actress categories are probably hardest:
Best Featured Actor in a Musical:
Should Be Nominated:
Greg Jabara for Billy Elliot
Christopher Sieber for Shrek
Will Swenson for Hair
Marc Kudisch for 9 to 5
Aaron Tveit for Next to Normal
My Dark Horse: Adam Chanler-Berat for Next to Normal

Will Be Nominated:
Greg Jabara for Billy Elliot
Christopher Sieber for Shrek
Will Swenson for Hair
Marc Kudisch for 9 to 5
Aaron Tveit for Next to Normal

Dark Horse: Aaron Lazar for A Tale of Two Cities, James Carpinello for Rock of Ages, Titus Burgess for Guys and Dolls
Will Win: Christopher Sieber for Shrek
Should WIn: Honestly, I'm down with Jabara, Sieber, Swenson, Kudisch or Tveit winning at this point.


Best Featured Actress in a Musical:
Should Be Nominated:
Karen Olivo for West Side Story
Hadyn Gwynne for Billy Elliot
Martha Plimpton for Pal Joey
Jennifer Damiano for Next to Normal
Susan Blackwell for [title of show]
My Dark Horses: Heidi Blickenstaff for [title of show], Allie Trimm for 13, Megan Hilty for 9 to 5

Will Get Nominated:
Karen Olivo for West Side Story
Hadyn Gwynne for Billy Elliot
Martha Plimpton for Pal Joey
Jennifer Damiano for Next to Normal
Megan Hilty for 9 to 5

Dark Horse: Susan Blackwell for [title of show], Kathy Fitzgerald for 9 to 5, Cassie Levy for Hair
Will Win: Hadyn Gwynne
Should Win: I'm down with Olivo, Gwynne, Plimpton or Damiano for the win. Or any of the [title of show] ladies if they made the cut.


Best Director of a Musical:
Should Be Nominated:
Diane Paulus for Hair
Michael Berresse for [title of show]
Stephen Daldry for Billy Elliot
Michael Greif for Next to Normal
My Dark Horse: Jeremy Sams for 13

Will Get Nominated:
Diane Paulus for Hair
Arthur Laurents for West Side Story
Stephen Daldry for Billy Elliot
Michael Greif for Next to Normal

Dark Horse: Joe Mantello for 9 to 5
Will Win: Stephen Daldry for Billy Elliot
Should Win: Diane Paulus for Hair


Best Choreography
Should Be Nominated:
Andy Blankenbuehler for 9 to 5
Karole Armitage for Hair
Peter Darling for Billy Elliot
Christopher Gatelli for 13
Dark Horse: Sergio Trujillo for Next to Normal

Will Be Nominated:
Andy Blankenbuehler for 9 to 5
Karole Armitage for Hair
Peter Darling for Billy Elliot
Kelly Devine for Rock of Ages

Dark Horse: Sergio Trujillo for Next to Normal or Guys and Dolls
Will Win: Peter Darling for Billy Elliot
Should Win: Karole Armitage for Hair or Andy Blankenbuehler for 9 to 5


Best Score:
Should Be Nominated:
Jeff Bowen for [title of show]
Elton John for Billy Elliot
Dolly Parton for 9 to 5
Jason Robert Brown for 13

Will Be Nominated:
Jeanine Tesori and David Lindsay-Abaire for Shrek
Elton John for Billy Elliot
Dolly Parton for 9 to 5
Tom Kitt and Brian Yorkey for Next to Normal

Will Win/Should Win: Elton John for Billy Elliot


Best Book:
Should Be Nominated:
Hunter Bell for [title of show]
Lee Hall for Billy Elliot
Brian Yorkey for Next to Normal
Dan Elish and Robert Horn for 13

Will Get Nominated:
Lee Hall for Billy Elliot
Brian Yorkey for Next to Normal
David Lindsay-Abaire for Shrek
Patricia Resnick for 9 to 5

Will Win/Should Win: Lee Hall for Billy Elliot


Best Scenic
Should Be Nominated:
Billy Elliot
Next to Normal
9 to 5
West Side Story
My Dark Horse: White Christmas

Will Be Nominated:
Billy Elliot
Shrek
A Tale of Two Cities
West Side Story

Will Win: Billy Elliot
Should Win: Next to Normal


Best Costume:
Should Be Nominated:
Hair
Pal Joey
Shrek
White Christmas

Will Be Nominated:
Billy Elliot
Pal Joey
Shrek
White Christmas

Will Win: Shrek
Should Win: Hair


Best Lighting
Should Be Nominated/Will Be Nominated:
Hair
Next to Normal
West Side Story
Billy Elliot

Will Win: Billy Elliot
Should Win: Hair or Next to Normal


Best Orchestrations
Should Be Nominated:
Hair
Billy Elliot
13
Next to Normal

Will Be Nominated:
Hair
Billy Elliot
Shrek
Next to Normal

Will Win: Billy Elliot
Should Win: Hair

And there you have it. My Tony Award picks. Let's see if my nominations are right on May 5th and the awards on Sunday, June 7th (on CBS).

Here were all my reviews from the musicals that I've seen so far:

Billy Elliot (Musical) - Imperial Theatre - Broadway, New York, NY - **** (Review)

Guys and Dolls - Nederlander Theatre - Broadway, New York, NY - *** (Review)

Hair (Musical Revival) - Delacorte Theatre Central Park, New York, NY - (Review) *****

9 to 5: The Musical - Ahmanson Theatre - Los Angeles, CA - ***1/2 (Review)

Next to Normal (Musical) - Arena Stage Theater - Washington, D.C. - *** (Review)

13 (Musical) - Goodspeed's Norma Terris Theatre - Chester, CT & Bernard B. Jacobs Theatre - Broadway, New York, NY - (Review from Goodspeed, Review from Broadway) ****

Pal Joey x2 (Musical Revival) - Studio 54 - Broadway, New York, NY - Original Review ****, Now ***1/2 (Review)

Shrek (Musical) - Broadway Theatre - Broadway, New York, NY - ** (Review)

[title of show] (Musical) - Lyceum Theatre - Broadway, New York, NY - (Review) ****

West Side Story - (Musical Revival) - National Theatre - Washington, D.C. - (Review) ****1/2


Vance at http://tapeworthy.blogspot.com

4 comments:

Esther said...

Hey Vance,
Very interesting! I haven't seen many shows this season so I probably won't be doing any Tony predictions. But of everyone I've seen, the person I'd most like to see win is Haydn Gwynne for "Billy Elliot." I thought she was awesome, just adding an extra spark to the show whenever she was on stage.

And I liked Peter Darling's choreography, too, although I haven't seen the others. Btw, does the Billy choreography change much depending on who's on that night? I know each of the boys has different strengths in different types of dancing.

But I do hope "13" gets some love somewhere the in process, if only with a nomination.

Flip Chick said...

Sorry to be dense, but has it been ruled that Megan Hilty would be considered as Featured Actress while Allison Janney and Stephanie J. Block would be considered as Lead Actress?

I haven't seen too many of the eligible shows, so I can't really comment on your predictions. All I know is I saw 9 TO 5 and had a blast. :)

Vance said...

Actually, I think officially nothing has been ruled yet. i was just going by the Jeffibility chart. lol.

Though I would think the producers would want to split up the equal ladies to get as many chances for a win as possible.

Lexi Elizabeth said...

This was so accurate, it's scary.

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